Filling an Oscar ballot without checking the guild awards costs points in the two biggest categories. In the six ceremonies from 2021 to 2026, the Producers Guild of America’s top film award went to the film that then won Best Picture every time, and the Directors Guild of America’s feature award went to the director who then won the Directing Oscar every time.
The best Oscar predictor, on the official record we compiled, is the precursor award that rewards the same job as the Oscar you are picking: the PGA’s Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Best Picture and the DGA’s feature film award for Directing. Both matched the Oscar in all six ceremonies from 2021 to 2026, according to each guild’s own winner announcements and the Academy’s ceremony pages. Six years is a small sample, the two Oscars split from each other three times between 2017 and 2026, and nothing here guarantees a result; the ballot itself has to wait for the Academy’s nominations on January 21, 2027.
This page builds the record from official sources, turns it into a five-step method for filling a ballot, and explains where predictions go wrong. It does not predict the 99th Oscars.
Key points:
- Read each precursor only for the Oscar category whose job it rewards.
- Use the guild results after the Academy publishes nominees, never before.
- Predict Best Picture and Directing separately; they do not always go to the same film.
- Judge any prediction source on the same categories, years and cutoff dates.
Which precursor awards line up with which Oscars?
A precursor is useful when it rewards the same job as the Oscar category: the producers’ award for the best film, the directors’ award for directing, the actors’ awards for performances. The table shows what each widely followed precursor rewards and what this page has, and has not, checked against the Oscars.
| Precursor | Organization | What it rewards | Closest Oscar | Record on this page |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures | Producers Guild of America (PGA) | Producers of a film | Best Picture | 6 of 6, 2021 to 2026 |
| Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film | Directors Guild of America (DGA) | Directing of a film | Directing | 6 of 6, 2021 to 2026 |
| Individual and cast awards | Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards) | Performances | The four acting categories | Not compiled here |
| Best Film and acting awards | British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) | Film and performances | Best Picture; acting | Not compiled here |
Sources: PGA and DGA winner announcements, 2020 to 2026; Academy ceremony pages, 2017 to 2026. Counts are ours.
The nomination round and the final round work differently, and the difference matters for predictions. Under the Academy’s 99th rules, the Actors Branch nominates the acting categories and the Directors Branch nominates Directing, while all active and life members rank up to ten films to choose the Best Picture nominees. In the final round, every category is open to active and life members who have seen all of that category’s nominees. Our explainer on how Oscar branches compare with Emmy peer groups sets the two systems side by side.
Takeaway: Match each precursor to the job it rewards, and remember that Oscar winners are chosen by the whole voting membership.
The six-year record: PGA and DGA against the Oscars
In every ceremony from 2021 to 2026, the PGA winner won Best Picture and the DGA winner won Directing. The DGA winner’s film also won Best Picture in five of the six years. Each cell below comes from the organization’s own announcement.
| Oscars ceremony | Best Picture | PGA top award | Directing Oscar | DGA feature award |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 (93rd) | Nomadland | Nomadland ✓ | Chloé Zhao, Nomadland | Chloé Zhao, Nomadland ✓ |
| 2022 (94th) | CODA | CODA ✓ | Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog | Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog ✓ |
| 2023 (95th) | Everything Everywhere All at Once | Everything Everywhere All at Once ✓ | Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert | Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert ✓ |
| 2024 (96th) | Oppenheimer | Oppenheimer ✓ | Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer | Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer ✓ |
| 2025 (97th) | Anora | Anora ✓ | Sean Baker, Anora | Sean Baker, Anora ✓ |
| 2026 (98th) | One Battle After Another | One Battle After Another ✓ | Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another | Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another ✓ |
| Matches | 6 of 6 | 6 of 6 |
Sources: Academy ceremony pages for 2021 to 2026; PGA winner announcements for 2021 to 2026; DGA winner announcements for 2021 to 2026. A check mark means the guild’s winner won the matching Oscar.
The record has limits that the table alone hides. Before 2021 the same guilds did not always line up: the DGA’s 2020 winner was Sam Mendes for 1917, according to the guild, while the Academy’s 2020 Directing Oscar went to Bong Joon Ho and Best Picture to Parasite. Six straight matches describe a recent run, not a rule.
Common mistake: Reading the DGA as a Best Picture signal. In 2022 the DGA and the Directing Oscar both went to Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog, while Best Picture went to CODA.
Takeaway: For Best Picture start with the PGA, for Directing start with the DGA, and treat both as strong recent records rather than guarantees.
How to predict the Oscars: a five-step method
Predicting the Oscars well means reading the right precursor for each category, in a fixed order, and writing down where the evidence is thin. The five steps below turn the record into a ballot. They are our method, not an Academy procedure, and they have not been tested against a scored archive.
| Step | What to do | Output |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Start from the official nominees | Wait for the Academy’s list (January 21, 2027 for the 99th Oscars); predict only among real nominees | A ballot with up to five names per category, ten for Best Picture |
| 2. Map each category to its precursor | PGA for Best Picture, DGA for Directing, the acting awards for the four acting categories | A precursor column next to each category |
| 3. Note agreement and gaps | Mark categories where the precursors named the same nominee, where they disagreed and where none applies | Categories labelled “aligned”, “split” or “no precursor” |
| 4. Decide each category | Favor the precursor with the stronger official record for that category; record a second choice where precursors split | A first and second choice per category |
| 5. Lock and keep the record | Fill the ballot before the broadcast and save your reasons with the date | A dated record to check after the ceremony |
For step 5, the printable 24-category ballot keeps every category in one place.
Step 1 matters more than it looks. The 99th rules cap every category at five nominees except Best Picture, which has ten, and members must have seen all the nominees in a category before voting in it. A pick that is not on the Academy’s list scores nothing. For the 99th ceremony date and a lock time, see the Oscar party guide’s timeline.
Step 3 is an organizing aid. Labelling a category “split” does not tell you which side will win; it tells you where your ballot is most exposed, which is useful when you choose a tie-breaker or decide how many points to stake in a confidence pool.
Takeaway: Do the mapping before you read anyone else’s predictions, and keep a dated record so you can judge your own method next year.
Why Oscar predictions go wrong
Oscar predictions go wrong for identifiable reasons: Best Picture is counted by ranking, Best Picture and Directing can split, a precursor can miss in a given year, and a short record says little about the next one. Each reason below is tied to a source.
| Reason | Evidence | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Best Picture is counted by ranking | RTÉ, explaining the March 2026 voting, described the final Best Picture count as a ranked ballot that eliminates the film with the fewest first-place votes until one has a majority | Weigh how widely a film is liked, not only its most passionate support |
| Best Picture and Directing can split | The Academy’s results show different films winning the two categories in 2017 (Moonlight and La La Land), 2019 (Green Book and Roma) and 2022 (CODA and The Power of the Dog) | Predict the two categories separately |
| A precursor can miss | In 2020 the DGA went to Sam Mendes for 1917; the Directing Oscar went to Bong Joon Ho | Keep a second choice when other signals disagree |
| A short record | Six ceremonies of PGA and DGA matches | Treat records as tendencies, not rules |
| The rules change | The 99th rules require voters to have seen every nominee in a category before voting in it | Re-read the current rules each year |
| No precursor on this page | Shorts, casting and several craft categories are not covered by the two guild awards checked here | Accept lower confidence or use flat scoring |
Common mistake: Picking the same film for Best Picture and Directing by default. In three of the ten ceremonies from 2017 to 2026, the Academy gave the two awards to different films.
Takeaway: When two signals point different ways, write down both and lower your confidence rather than picking the louder favorite.
How to judge an Oscar prediction site or forum
A prediction site or forum is worth following when it publishes dated picks, states its method and separates “will win” from “should win.” Compare it only on the same categories, years and cutoff dates as your own picks, or the comparison means nothing.
| Check | What a good source shows | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Dated record | Past picks archived with the date they were made | Lets you score it on the same cutoff as yours |
| Method | Whether picks come from one critic, a panel, a reader poll or market odds | Different methods fail in different ways |
| Update trail | Changes after each precursor announcement, with dates | Shows whether picks follow evidence or habit |
| Will win vs should win | Two separate columns or labels | Opinion about merit is not a forecast |
| Scope | Every category, not only the headline races | A pool ballot covers all 24 categories |
A practical test is to copy a source’s final picks onto a blank pool ballot before the ceremony and score them afterwards with the same rule you use for your own. This site does not publish a record of its own picks.
Takeaway: Follow sources that show their record and method, and test them on the same ballot you use.
When this does not apply
This page covers six Oscar ceremonies (2021 to 2026) for the PGA and DGA records and ten ceremonies (2017 to 2026) for the Best Picture and Directing splits, all from official announcements. It does not compile records for the Actor Awards, BAFTA, the Golden Globes or the Critics Choice Awards, or for any acting or craft category. Organizations rename and reorganize their awards; the Screen Actors Guild Awards are now presented as the Actor Awards.
The Academy’s final voting for the 99th Oscars runs from February 25 to March 4, 2027, according to the Academy and ABC; precursor winners announced in the meantime should be checked on each organization’s own site. If you also follow the Emmys, remember that TV awards run on their own clock, set against the network season calendar. Our other awards-season explainers and the full article index follow the same dating rule, and the About page explains that this site is independent of the Academy and of every guild named here.
Takeaway: Use the record as a starting point for the 99th Oscars and add the new guild winners as they are announced.
Method and sources
We compiled the records on October 7, 2026. Oscar winners come from the Academy’s ceremony pages for 2017 to 2026. PGA winners come from the Producers Guild’s winner announcements for 2021 to 2026, and DGA winners from the Directors Guild’s press releases for 2020 to 2026. Match counts are ours. Rule details come from the Academy’s 99th Oscars Complete Rules; the description of the Best Picture count comes from RTÉ (March 14, 2026). The method steps and source checklist are this site’s suggestions. To re-check a row, open the matching official announcement listed under Sources.
Related reading
Start with the ballot if the nominations are out; start with the voting rules if they are not.
- Printable Oscar pool ballot and party guide — Turn your picks into a scored ballot with a lock time.
- Emmy nomination categories explained — See how Academy branches compare with Emmy peer groups.
- How the fall TV schedule works — Follow the TV side of the awards calendar.
- All articles — Browse every guide on this site.
